University of Warwick Module Code: IB9150 Module Title: Forecasting for Decision Makers School Year: 2023-24 Individual Assignment Question and Guidance 3,000 words: This is a strict limit, not a guideline: any piece submitted with more words than the limit will result in the excess not being marked. Note: any +10% word limit rule that may be applied in other modules is not applicable here. You are asked to analyse market size growth and market share prospects of a consumer brand within a specific country, including an analysis of the country’s growth prospects. As part of your research, you should download data from Passport/Euromonitor (library link: webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=e100…). See pre-recorded video on module page Day 1. (1) Choose first the country you would like to focus your analysis on. You are not allowed to choose a country you are a citizen of. At the country level, download data on past annual economic growth (real GDP growth), including forecasts up to 2028, by selecting “economies”, “economy, finance and trade”, and “real GDP growth”, and then search for the country you are interested in. Download data for the longest time series available. Your analysis may be supported by the country reports available under “analysis” on the “economies” “economy, finance and trade” tab. (2) Your next choice is to choose an industry in the “industries” tab (say alcoholic drinks under drinks). (3) Then select a “category”, “geography”, and “statistic” in the “explore statistics” tab (as, for example, “Beer, Germany, market size”). There are two main time series you should focus your analysis on. The first one is a measure of the market size for your choice of country/industry/category, usually measured as retail value RSP in local currency at constant prices代 写 IB9150 (headline units are in volume or dollars, but you are able to see the values in local currency at constant prices on downloaded report data). You should use the longest time series available and store five years of forecasts. The second time series is the brand share for a specific brand (change the statistic option to “brand shares”). A suggestion is to use the “country report” for your “category” and “geography” under “explore analysis” in the industries tab to pick a brand with a reasonably large market share (as, for example, “Krombacher”, which is a brand within “Beer in Germany”). The database allows you to download the market share for the brand over the last ten years. You should also consider alternative sources of information on the brand you have chosen such that you have enough information to carry out an in-depth analysis of the prospects of the brand for the next five years. Page 2 of 3 The essay should include:
- An analysis of economic growth forecasts over the next five years (2024-2028) for the country you chose. You should provide your own forecasts, including an explanation of how you computed them, why you choose that method and comparison with available alternatives (including those from Passport/Euromonitor but also with other professional and institutional forecasts). You should consider sources of uncertainty when calculating and analysing forecasts.
- An analysis of market size forecasts (total sales for the industry/category chosen) over the next five years. You should compute your own forecasts, including an explanation of how you compute them, and why you choose that method. Discuss them compared to Passport/Euromonitor forecasts. You should consider sources of uncertainty when calculating and analysing forecasts.
- An analysis of how the prospects for the market share of the brand you are analysing is expected to evolve in the next five years. The analysis should include quantitative forecasts for the brand market share and make use of your previous analysis (items 1 and 2) to support a reflection on the uncertainties facing the brand. Your essay should be well-structured (divided into sections, including an introduction, conclusion and references) and show that you can provide forecasts and analysis of sources of uncertainty to support a clear vision of the five-year outlook of a consumer brand in a country of your choice. Maximum Length: 3000 words (this is a strict limit, not a guideline) Assessment Weighting: 80% Submission Deadline: Thursday 20th June before 12:00:00 (noon, UK time) Marks Released by: Thursday 18th July (we will aim to release marks by this date, but in the event of an unavoidable delay a message will be posted on the module page) Use of Artificial Intelligence The University recognises an increasing number of technologies such as Artificial Intelligence and that they may be applicable in your completing this assessment. The assessment brief sets out specific requirements or restrictions, and your student handbook has further guidance and advice. You are reminded that the inappropriate use of such a technology may constitute a breach of University policy, such as the Proofreading Policy or Regulation 11 (Academic Integrity). If you breach these policies, it may have significant consequences for your studies. Please make sure you read and understand the assessment brief and how AI may or may not be used. Page 3 of 3 You should ensure you include an assignment cover sheet which requires you to explain the use of any AI. Failure to disclose at the point of submission may be prejudicial in any later investigations should they arise. For this assessment, AI is: PROBHIBITED OR RESTRICTED Please select the most appropriate text for your purposes. You MUST NOT use any generative Artificial Intelligence in this assessment unless specifically authorised for reasonable adjustments. You MAY use non-generative tools such as a spell-check, basic grammar check (non-generative), calculator or similar. If you have any doubts about a tool or service you plan to use please contact the module leader. Submitting your work Before you submit your assessment, you should ensure you are familiar with the guidance and rules in the “Your Assessments” section of your Student Handbook, paying particular attention to: Inserting a completed assignment coversheet as the first page of your submission Academic Integrity (including Plagiarism) Referencing Word Count Policy and Formatting Confidentiality of your work Extensions and late submission of work Guidelines for Online Submission Mitigating Circumstances Mitigating circumstances MUST be submitted within 20 working days following the submission deadline. Mitigating circumstances not submitted by the relevant deadline are not required to be considered by the School/Department and may have to be considered by an Academic Appeals Committee as part of an academic appeal – for further information, please see: Please see your Student Handbook for more guidance on mitigating circumstances WX：codinghelp
