一、简介
不少专家都指出,要实现有效的减排,首先要做的就是建立一个科学的碳排放核算机制,无论是对实现减排的奖励,还是对减排不力的惩罚,都需要一个基于科学、合理、可量化的核算体制。
实际上,从上世纪 90 年代人们就已经开始量化各种温室气体 ( 主要是二氧化碳 ) 的排放,以了解其对全球大气的影响。据专家介绍,全球总的碳排放量可以通过诸多方法确定,如宏观模型、直接测量、计算和估算等。但是,如果具体到某一国家、某一企业甚至某个人的排放量,主要是统计出来的,而不是检测出来的。
随着环保和低碳概念越来越深入人心,网络上出现了各种版本的碳排放计算器,可以用来评价生活中的碳排放量。一些专业组织和行业机构也会推出一些针对某一 行业和领域的碳排放测算系统。但是记者了解发现,无论是针对个人的碳排放计算器,还是针对企业的碳排放评测系统,都有很多版本和标准,得出的结论也不尽相 同。
全球最大的能源企业之一 BP 是率先推出碳排放计算器 ( 现更名为“能源计算器” ) 的公司或组织之一。 BP 中国能源计算器项目的相关负责人张磊告诉《中国经济周刊》, BP 的能源计算器主要有两个版本:一个是面向普通消费者的简单版本,其主要目的是让一般消费者了解自己的日常行为与碳排放之间的关系,从而采取低碳生活方式,进而达到保护环境的目的。
另一个是主要为学校专门开发的用于教育目的的版本,主要用于鼓励学生的探究式学习,以及让学生用碳排放计算器作为工具,引发更多对于可持续发展、气候变化的关注。
至于一些日常行为,比如用电,是如何转化成碳排放量的,张磊表示,相关的后台公式是相当复杂的,即使提供,一般人也很难理解。
国内著名的环保 NGO ——山水自然保护中心也有一款碳排放计算器。该中心宣传交流顾问耿栋告诉《中国经济周刊》,各种版本碳排放计算器的结果有差别,主要是由采用不同的转换系数造成的。比如,节约 1 度电所减少的碳排放是多少,主要由“ _ 度电×转换系数 =_ 千克二氧化碳”这样的公式计算得来,山水版计算器的转化系数是 0.785 ,而有的计算器则是 0.997 。
“我们的转换系数,是与国家发改委能源研究所共同探讨得出的。”耿栋表示。具体而言,以用电为例,中国是以火力发电为主的国家,也就说主要是通过燃烧煤、石油及其制品、天然气等燃料所得到的热能进行发电的。通过科学的统计,在一般情况下,发 1 度电如果需要消耗 0.4 千克 标准煤,而燃烧 1 千克 标准煤会产生的二氧化碳大约是 2.5 千克 二氧化碳,那么节约 1 度电就可视为减排了 1 千克 的二氧化碳。
虽然由煤到电的转换我们可以在实验室中得到理论值,但这在现实中是不可能的,所以一般使用的是国家发改委和国家统计局公布的统计数字。不过这个数字也不是一成不变,比如 2000 年的时候,中国火电厂平均每度电的煤耗是 0.392 千克 标准煤,而目前已经下降到 0.36 千克 左右,预计到 2020 年可以下降到 0.32 千克 。
耿栋表示,国家统计局和发改委都是目前中国碳排放核算最权威的数据来源,但是,“中国有中国的标准,国外有国外的标准,肯定是不一样的,否则哥本哈根会议也不会吵起来。”
减排的商业空间:
技术、标准和碳关税
著名经济学家斯蒂格利茨说:“在下一个 10 年,我们 ( 美国 ) 要做的就是利用一切机会,将减缓全球变暖产生的需求转化为市场”。
发达国家一方面以正义的、无懈可击的理由推动全球减碳,另一方面把已经准备好的相关技术和设备推向全球,特别是发展中国家,以谋求下一轮经济增长的制高点,这早已不是什么秘密。
著名学者郎咸平就曾表示,“在出口技术和设备的同时,美国一定会制定一套全球最为严格的标准,要想达标,你必须购买上述技术和设备。”
2007 年,世界经济论坛 (World Economic Forum) 的下属机构气候披露标准委员会 (CDSB , Climate Disclosure Standards Board) 在瑞士达沃斯宣布成立,其首个倡议就是推动建立一个碳排放发布国际标准。
CDSB 还 同时公布了一份经包括数家国际知名的会计企业在内的专家小组起草的计划书,希望推动企业积极披露其碳排放情况,并希望碳排放报告成为企业年报的组成部分。 之后,普华永道会计师事务所还更进一步,编撰并公布了业内第一份环保报告范本,来说明企业应该如何撰写关于碳排放的披露内容
美国、欧洲和日本的很多环保组织也越来越多地出现在中国,说服中国各地政府和企业,按照他们的体系核算自己的碳排放。比如,今年 6 月,美国加州环境保护局局长琳达·亚当斯就专程来京,力荐他们的“能效与碳注册 (ECR) 系统建设项目”,希望把加州的先进经验在中国得到推广。
早在几年前,欧美日等发达国家就先后出台了关于碳排放核算和监督的标准规范,并且已经有大量的公司开始从事算“碳账”的业务,围绕碳排放的检测与核算已经逐渐形成产业链,一条发展中国家可能需要大量进口的产业链。
“绝大多数中国的 CMD( 清洁发展机制 ) 项目,都是国外中介公司做的。”一位业内人士告诉《中国经济周刊》。
但是,记者日前从国家标准委了解到,由中国标准化研究院组织制定的 3 项温室气体排放国家标准已于今年 1 月完成报批稿,只待国际标准化组织 (ISO) 正在制定的一系列国际标准发布后即转化为中国的国家标准。
这个项目自 2006 年开始就展开了前期研究,内容围绕温室气体管理标准体系构建、国际相关标准、温室气体量化方法学、缓解温室气体排放相关标准和政策、企业温室气体排放清单及排放源调查监测规范等诸多方面,为我国的温室气体排放标准奠定了基础。
但是,即使中国在这方面有了科学的、被国际认可的标准,也并不意味着问题就此解决。因为不少专家早已开始担心,今后碳排放标准极有可能成为新的绿色贸易壁垒。
“碳关税”早已正式进入美国、法国等国的政策层面,美国已经开始提出,如果他国不按照美国标准进行减排,就要对他国商品征收碳关税。
中国应打出自己的减排特色牌
发达国家竭力推动节能减排,背后隐藏的“小算盘”不容忽视。“哥本哈根谈论环境问题,表面是为了保护环境,而背后的实质实际上是在争夺经济发展和对外贸易的主导权。” 国家环境咨询委员会委员、中国环境资源法研究会副会长、中国政法大学教授和博士生导师孙佑海在接受《中国经济周刊》采访时指出。
孙佑海认为,欧盟之所以积极地推动减排,主要还是因为欧盟现在经济发展缺乏活力,外贸的竞争力很弱,但是他们已经拥有碳捕捉、碳储存等先进技术,如果能将这些技术卖出去,就会使其摆脱目前外贸疲软的现状,并进而争取经济发展和对外贸易的制高点和经济发展的主导权。
美国方面,其在小布什政府期间退出《京都议定书》,在丧失全球政治的“道德高点”的同时,也将“低碳政治”的话语权拱手让给了欧洲。但奥巴马政府上台 后,由于与小布什政府代表着不同的利益集团,故而顺应时势,积极推动“绿色经济”,大力发展新能源和替代产业,希望能够重新掌握“低碳政治”话语权。
相比之下,孙佑海认为,中国在节能减排方面不能被欧盟、美国牵着走,应该打出自己的特色牌。虽然中国目前还处在自主减排的阶段,但是今后的减排压力一定会越来越大,而且如果不跟进,就不能融入世界经济的主流。对此,孙佑海提出了四点建议:一是不能再单纯地追求 GDP ;二是加大技术的提升,在保证经济增长的同时实现减排;三是加强管理,特别是立法;四是全民提高节能环保的意识,树立低碳的生活观念。
“立法上,其实已经做得比较好了,已经有了相关法律,比如《可再生能源法》、《节约能源法》、《循环经济促进法》、《清洁生产促进法》等等。”孙佑海还透露,中国已经在研究和酝酿实行碳税和发展碳汇,并且会在适当时机推出。
二、源代码
function varargout = CO2(varargin)
% CO2 M-file for CO2.fig
% CO2, by itself, creates a new CO2 or raises the existing
% singleton*.
%
% H = CO2 returns the handle to a new CO2 or the handle to
% the existing singleton*.
%
% CO2('CALLBACK',hObject,eventData,handles,...) calls the local
% function named CALLBACK in CO2.M with the given input arguments.
%
% CO2('Property','Value',...) creates a new CO2 or raises the
% existing singleton*. Starting from the left, property value pairs are
% applied to the GUI before CO2_OpeningFunction gets called. An
% unrecognized property name or invalid value makes property application
% stop. All inputs are passed to CO2_OpeningFcn via varargin.
%
% *See GUI Options on GUIDE's Tools menu. Choose "GUI allows only one
% instance to run (singleton)".
%
% See also: GUIDE, GUIDATA, GUIHANDLES
% Edit the above text to modify the response to help CO2
% Last Modified by GUIDE v2.5 16-Jul-2020 15:11:42
% Begin initialization code - DO NOT EDIT
gui_Singleton = 1;
gui_State = struct('gui_Name', mfilename, ...
'gui_Singleton', gui_Singleton, ...
'gui_OpeningFcn', @CO2_OpeningFcn, ...
'gui_OutputFcn', @CO2_OutputFcn, ...
'gui_LayoutFcn', [] , ...
'gui_Callback', []);
if nargin && ischar(varargin{1})
gui_State.gui_Callback = str2func(varargin{1});
end
if nargout
[varargout{1:nargout}] = gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});
else
gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});
end
% End initialization code - DO NOT EDIT
% --- Executes just before CO2 is made visible.
function CO2_OpeningFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles, varargin)
% This function has no output args, see OutputFcn.
% hObject handle to figure
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% varargin command line arguments to CO2 (see VARARGIN)
% Choose default command line output for CO2
handles.output = hObject;
% Update handles structure
guidata(hObject, handles);
% UIWAIT makes CO2 wait for user response (see UIRESUME)
% uiwait(handles.figure1);
% --- Outputs from this function are returned to the command line.
function varargout = CO2_OutputFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% varargout cell array for returning output args (see VARARGOUT);
% hObject handle to figure
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Get default command line output from handles structure
varargout{1} = handles.output;
function a1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of a1 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of a1 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function a1_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function a2_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a2 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of a2 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of a2 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function a2_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a2 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function a3_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a3 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of a3 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of a3 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function a3_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a3 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function a4_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a4 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of a4 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of a4 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function a4_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a4 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function a5_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a5 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of a5 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of a5 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function a5_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a5 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function a6_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a6 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of a6 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of a6 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function a6_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a6 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function a7_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a7 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of a7 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of a7 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function a7_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a7 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function a8_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a8 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of a8 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of a8 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function a8_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a8 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function a9_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a9 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of a9 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of a9 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function a9_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to a9 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function b1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to b1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of b1 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of b1 as a double
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function b1_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to b1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
三、运行结果
四、备注
版本:2014a
完整代码或代写加1564658423